Nigeria was on Tuesday warned that violence could resume in the oil-producing south, exacerbating pressure on already stretched resources by Boko Haram in the north, and reduced crude revenues.
The International Crisis Group said the root causes of the insurgency in the strategic Niger Delta remained "largely unaddressed" and action was required to maintain the fragile peace.
"Violence in the Niger Delta may soon increase unless the Nigerian government acts quickly and decisively to address long-simmering grievances," it said in a new report.
The ICG assessed that government agencies set up to develop the south had "floundered" while efforts to manage oil spills had been "largely ineffective", it added.
"The conditions that sparked the insurgency could easily trigger a new phase of violent conflict," said the report, "Curbing Violence in Nigeria (III): Revisiting the Niger Delta".
Buhari, who has made tackling the rot in the oil sector a priority, has withdrawn pipeline protection contracts from former militants and ethnic Yoruba militia.
The threat to vested interests, local political tensions and the perception of a plot by northern Muslim Buhari to rob the largely Christian south of oil revenue could trigger unrest.
"With many guns in unauthorised hands, politically motivated assassinations and kidnappings for ransom, already common, could increase," the ICG said.
It added: "A resurgence of violence and increased oil-related crime in the Delta could seriously undermine national security and economic stability, which is already weighed down by the Boko Haram insurgency and dwindling oil revenues."
Central to the uncertainty in the region is the government's $500m-a-year amnesty programme for former militants who attacked oil and gas industry infrastructure in the creeks in the 2000s.
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